Curse

Mireles · Jun 04, 2011, 09:48 PM // 21:48

I expect z-key prices to fall...prob to around 5.5k...supply will increase because of the increase activity in PvP and the introduction of imperial faction to convert into balth faction in areas that previously had a very low yield for balth faction...

Gold coins started at 10-14k the second update hit cuz of the "OMG NEW RARE STUFFS!!!!" demand effect... but will have a slow decrease in demand over time and will finally settle at a price 500g-2k above a respective z-key price

As for the gold coins = 12k because of elite rit tome justification i don't find valid... you will see rit tomes decrease in price because of increased accessibility.... think about it.... if u had 100 gold coins and couldn't find a price above 10k... and ppl converted to elite rit tomes to make more profit would bring the price of elite rit tomes down because of the increased supply... making that justification consume itself... rit tomes are going to decrease in price as a result of decreased gold coin conversion.. not opposite

AngelWJedi · Jun 05, 2011, 12:54 AM // 00:54

to base the gold coins ONLY on elite rt tomes is silly. their are other elite tomes im use if people did use coins for elite tomes they got others besides rt ones. xD

Mcsnake85 · Jun 05, 2011, 07:42 AM // 07:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngelWJedi

to base the gold coins ONLY on elite rt tomes is silly. their are other elite tomes im use if people did use coins for elite tomes they got others besides rt ones. xD

This is right, agree 100%.....but unfortunately E.Rit tome are expensive than others, thats why the prices are based on them.
When they drop in price, G.Coins drop in price.
Z keys drop because now are easy to get and we have an increment of ppl that play pvp with new update!

Kanyatta · Jun 05, 2011, 05:37 PM // 17:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mcsnake85

This is right, agree 100%.....but unfortunately E.Rit tome are expensive than others, thats why the prices are based on them.

You keep ignoring the fact that Elite Tomes aren't static in price. They sell for whatever the market will pay for them. And I feel that the community will wise up within the next one to two weeks and see there's no reason to pay extra for Elite Rit tomes as opposed to Elite Mesmer tomes, since they can both be acquired for the same price.

Also, since I've seen most people buying Gold Coins for 10k/ea, I have a feeling that all Elite Tomes will either stick around that price, or drop even lower, since they can also be acquired by farming.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mcsnake85

Z keys drop because now are easy to get and we have an increment of ppl that play pvp with new update!

Zkey prices survived the Xunlai Tournament House being open for over a year, where even the dullest of PvE players could randomly pick GvG and HB teams and come out with 30-50 ZKey's/month, and if you had a particularly lucky month, you could get 80-100+. All for free, just by signing up at guildwars.com. I think the 5-6k ZKey price is here to stay, especially since the Zrank title will always have an emote, and people are always willing to pay top dollar for that. HA guilds used to accept real money to play your account and get you to R9 just so you could have the tiger emote, and people lined up for that service.

Mcsnake85 · Jun 05, 2011, 07:09 PM // 19:09

Quote:

You keep ignoring the fact that Elite Tomes aren't static in price. They sell for whatever the market will pay for them. And I feel that the community will wise up within the next one to two weeks and see there's no reason to pay extra for Elite Rit tomes as opposed to Elite Mesmer tomes, since they can both be acquired for the same price.

Also, since I've seen most people buying Gold Coins for 10k/ea, I have a feeling that all Elite Tomes will either stick around that price, or drop even lower, since they can also be acquired by farming.

Im not ignoring nothing,i just analyze everything before speak.I KNOW that price can drop BUT you have to deal with ppl stupidity and you havent calculate it.
ZKeys price was set to 4-5k for ages...sure,hom points made an increse of price, but i was there when i start ppl spam:
Wtb zkeys=5.5k
and then another one
Wtb zkeys=5.6k
and then
Wtb zkeys=5.8k ecc untill reach Wtb zkeys=1e
There are ppl that simply dont care to spent money and overprice things, for compete with other ppl they increase price,then other ppl increase price to compete with others ecc and the price of thing go out of controll.

Just to let you know i sold my first Envoy Sword for 340e (can provvide screenshots if you want)...Tbh wasnt my intention to sell it because i really wanted to keep it,but if someone offere me 3x times what i paid then LOL...i sold it..

You are right,i said it in 3 posts, price can drop and Gold Coins can drop for sure but ppl still selling and buying Elite rit tomes for that price so unfortunately price is set to 12k...ahh and to let you know: ppl dont care about Rit Elite tomes price,otherwise gold coins were selled for 12/13k..but as we can see in GTOB,they are sold for 2e or more / each.
So in this point of view my analysis fail too,because ppl set the price they want in base of what ppl pay.

Quote:

Also, since I've seen most people buying Gold Coins for 10k/ea, I have a feeling that all Elite Tomes will either stick around that price, or drop even lower, since they can also be acquired by farming.

PPL trying to buy for 10k/each and dont mean they can really get them for that price,and i saw ppl paying 2e/each.
I personally spend 1.5e/each.

Quote:

Zkey prices survived the Xunlai Tournament House being open for over a year, where even the dullest of PvE players could randomly pick GvG and HB teams and come out with 30-50 ZKey's/month, and if you had a particularly lucky month, you could get 80-100+. All for free, just by signing up at guildwars.com. I think the 5-6k ZKey price is here to stay, especially since the Zrank title will always have an emote, and people are always willing to pay top dollar for that. HA guilds used to accept real money to play your account and get you to R9 just so you could have the tiger emote, and people lined up for that service.

Well, i must agree here, but i cant bet on it.
With Imperial faction system, when you play JQ or Fort Aspenwood:
*You get Balth factions when you kill stuffs
*And you get Imperial points that you can convert in balthazar factions
Thats mean a lot of Balthazar faction per Run,so easier to get keys.
And dont forgot new Strongboxes,you can get Keys from them or you can get flames of balthazar to gain balthazar factions and convert them for keys.
Well,a lot of ways to make ZKeys now.
All i wrote by the way IS JUST MY OPINION

Martin Alvito · Jun 07, 2011, 01:26 PM // 13:26

ZKey prices put a hard floor under the price of ZCoins for obvious reasons. The time-limited availability of ZCoins means that ZKey prices will dictate ZCoin prices, and not the reverse.

The price of all Elite Tomes will eventually fall to that floor or lower. The increase in the supply of desired Elite Rit Tomes is going to start putting pressure on that price in a hurry.

ZCoins trade at a somewhat inflated price right now due to limited supply. As others have noted, it's not as though players were stockpiling them. As players start holding and trading them, and as they adjust their behavior to take into account the increased value of a ZCoin, the price will fall.

Remember that the presence of speculators means that the fall is likely to be both sudden and rapid. Don't assume that ZCoins will hold their value forever just because they hold their value this week. Once speculators get an unambiguous signal that the price is falling, they will all tend to start pricing aggressively, which causes the crash. (The behavior is individually rational but disastrous for the group, but it is unavoidable because the speculators cannot effectively coordinate their actions for a host of reasons.)

Anyone that claims that they can predict exactly where the price will land is lying. The final price will be determined by the value players place upon the new Envoy weapons, as well as whether ANet decides to allow those items to drop elsewhere. The existence of the greens with the same skins is going to tend to depress prices.

My guess would be that the argument that Gold ZCoins will eventually trade for a modest premium above ZKey prices will probably be proven correct.

LordDragon · Jun 07, 2011, 03:37 PM // 15:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

Once speculators get an unambiguous signal that the price is falling, they will all tend to start pricing aggressively, which causes the crash. (The behavior is individually rational but disastrous for the group, but it is unavoidable because the speculators cannot effectively coordinate their actions for a host of reasons.).

This reminds me of studying the 'Tulip Bulb Crash.' In 1636 a single tulip bulb could go for more money than a skilled craftsman could make in 10 years. Then in early February of 1637 people suddenly realized they were spending the equivalent of millions on freaking tulip bulbs! By May 1st of 1637 the special bulbs had lost 99.9999% of their value.

Most of the crash was caused by people trying to get anything at all back on their initial investment. Even a loss was preferable to getting nothing.

Martin Alvito · Jun 07, 2011, 04:18 PM // 16:18

That's not the only example in history, but it's one of the better ones.

The dynamics are simple and they are as you lay them out. This is why the "biggest fool" theory of investing has power. ("I am a fool for paying this, but there exists a bigger fool that will pay more," which works until the music stops on the game of musical chairs.)

The more widespread the panic, the uglier it gets, because of the difficulty that owners have in coordinating their actions. It would be much easier for three players owning all of the rare pets in GW to act as a cartel and monitor each other's behavior than it would be for 300 players, or 3,000.

Panics tend to result when individual, small investors hold a sizable proportion of the total available investment, both because of this issue and because small investors tend to be the last population to join a given investment pool.

Mordiego · Jun 07, 2011, 05:50 PM // 17:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbo32

...they should've made the daily PvE zquests repeatable...

Lol, no. One day of Unwaking Waters, Imperial Sanctuum or A Time For Heroes farm= zillion coins...

Verene · Jun 07, 2011, 07:12 PM // 19:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mcsnake85

Well, i must agree here, but i cant bet on it.
With Imperial faction system, when you play JQ or Fort Aspenwood:
*You get Balth factions when you kill stuffs
*And you get Imperial points that you can convert in balthazar factions
Thats mean a lot of Balthazar faction per Run,so easier to get keys.
And dont forgot new Strongboxes,you can get Keys from them or you can get flames of balthazar to gain balthazar factions and convert them for keys.
Well,a lot of ways to make ZKeys now.
All i wrote by the way IS JUST MY OPINION

I'm not convinced Imperial Faction is going to have that much of an impact. If you win in JQ, you get 4k Imperial Faction, plus whatever you made during the match. Imperial Faction converts to Balth at a rate of 3 IF for 1 Balth. You'll still need to win a few matches to have enough for a single key.

Mcsnake85 · Jun 07, 2011, 07:25 PM // 19:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Verene

I'm not convinced Imperial Faction is going to have that much of an impact. If you win in JQ, you get 4k Imperial Faction, plus whatever you made during the match. Imperial Faction converts to Balth at a rate of 3 IF for 1 Balth. You'll still need to win a few matches to have enough for a single key.

True,but its another way to get Balt.Faction and dont forgot that strongboxes can give you Balt.Flames that give 1000-3000 easy faction.
PPL startin farm a lot of them.
Prices are dropping just now from 6.5/7k to 5/5.5k.
We cant say nothing about what can happen in future,but im sure that IMP.Faction have an important role in zkeys price.

melissa b · Jun 07, 2011, 07:58 PM // 19:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mcsnake85

True,but its another way to get Balt.Faction and dont forgot that strongboxes can give you Balt.Flames that give 1000-3000 easy faction.
PPL startin farm a lot of them.
Prices are dropping just now from 6.5/7k to 5/5.5k.
We cant say nothing about what can happen in future,but im sure that IMP.Faction have an important role in zkeys price.

Certainly there should be some effect, how much is still to be seen. What would be really interesting is if imperial faction is added to pve content with winds of change. I could see that having a huge impact on zkey price. So what do zkey investors do about this unknown? Sell now thinking it will(could) be introduced in winds of change or hold on and hope it doesn't happen?

SmilingPolitely · Jun 08, 2011, 03:01 AM // 03:01

Any idea why people are falling over themselves to buy silver zCoins @ 2k/ea? At that rate, it makes absolutely no sense to convert to gold zCoins, as silver are far, far more profitable.

melissa b · Jun 08, 2011, 03:33 AM // 03:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmilingPolitely

Any idea why people are falling over themselves to buy silver zCoins @ 2k/ea? At that rate, it makes absolutely no sense to convert to gold zCoins, as silver are far, far more profitable.

Its still too soon for stable prices, its been less than a week. Give it some time, silver coins will not maintain 2k.

Im in SPAMADAN · Jun 08, 2011, 04:34 AM // 04:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmilingPolitely

Any idea why people are falling over themselves to buy silver zCoins @ 2k/ea? At that rate, it makes absolutely no sense to convert to gold zCoins, as silver are far, far more profitable.

The reason people pay 2k/ea per silver is because you can only use SILVER COINS to buy certain PvP armor and weapons. I however agreee with melissa that I do not see them maintaining 2k/ea while it will always stay higher than gold coins (even tho 10silv = 1 gold) due to the above reason

an ex, for those who don't understand what I mean

elite kurz armor in PvP costs 40 Silver Coins, tolkhano WILL NOT accept 4gold coins as an alternative, hench why silver coins will have this higher price.

tummlykins · Jun 08, 2011, 04:42 AM // 04:42

Rit tomes will never determine the value of coins. Supply and demand. Z Coins are used for a wide variety of things and thus there is a decent demand for them. Rit tomes are almost exclusively used once per account, at which point you don't need it any more. The demand for rit tomes will be very small compared with 20 slot bags or even Envoy Weapons.

I don't think Z Coins will be a major form of currency, most of the things you can get with them can be obtained much more efficiently via other methods. Z Keys are much easier to get through balth faction, let alone imperial faction. Tomes are easily farmed in PvE (although convenience of having a merchant might win out here). That mostly just leaves the bags and a handful of flavour of the month weapons. The exclusivity of Z Coin rewards will mean they will have decent value (for the bags alone) but beyond that, they are just so inefficiently grindy to obtain in comparison to every other single form of currency in the game (on par with War Supplies).

Kanyatta · Jun 08, 2011, 06:14 AM // 06:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mcsnake85

True,but its another way to get Balt.Faction and dont forgot that strongboxes can give you Balt.Flames that give 1000-3000 easy faction.
PPL startin farm a lot of them.
Prices are dropping just now from 6.5/7k to 5/5.5k.
We cant say nothing about what can happen in future,but im sure that IMP.Faction have an important role in zkeys price.

You, sir, quote a lot of prices to support your arguments, and I personally don't see them get backed up when I personally play. I still have no problems selling Zkeys, even today, for 6-6.5k/ea, and I sort of rely on that because that's how I make at least 90% of my in-game money.

Like I said earlier, I personally don't think Imperial Faction or Strongboxes will have a noticeable impact on the Zkey market ever. Like someone said before, I. Faction converts to Balth at a rate of 3:1, and you can only get 5 Keys out of a Strongbox if you are extremely lucky. You're far more likely to get just 1. Even if you win an entire AT, you'll probably to only net between 0 and 7 more Zkeys than normal. Strongboxes and Imp Faction are a small drop in the bucket.

An entire year of having Strongboxes and Imperial Faction will probably have as much impact on the Zkey market as having the Xunlai Tournament House open for one month did. After Guild Wars 2 comes out for a while, I'm sure we'll see a huge decline in Zkey prices, but at that point, who cares? Until then, I feel that the Zkey price will remain static around 6k/ea. Although it could possibly go as low as 5k/ea before the year 2012. But I don't think it will.

Urcscumug · Jun 08, 2011, 11:24 AM // 11:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Im in SPAMADAN

elite kurz armor in PvP costs 40 Silver Coins, tolkhano WILL NOT accept 4gold coins as an alternative, hench why silver coins will have this higher price.

Maybe he should. Or maybe we'll see a new "[Zaishen Coins]" NPC trader. Or the reward NPCs will start offering the reverse conversions as well. Because this "only convert up" model is starting to look a bit silly and has unnatural effects. Plus, doing this would put clear money value on all the zcoin types and end the speculation once and for all.

Mcsnake85 · Jun 08, 2011, 12:33 PM // 12:33

You guys overestimate ppl's IQ..
On First day of this update i sold an Envoy Sword for 340e...the day after it dropped in price for 200e and it is still 200e and i dont think it raise again.
I sold that sword because ppl dont want wait for price drop,and they buy for any price.
This reason caused Zkeys to raise as well,not the only one reason but:
1*
PPL dont care about money in this game (Do they Care?i think no) and they spend a lot of money on what they like.

2*
There is competion among ppl to get a certain item,so when someone offer 5k,another one offer 5.1k. If this appens only one time for a limited amount of items its not a problem,but if its happen for a long period and for a lot of items all ppl want sell for that price and all other sellers sell for that price.
This is the only reason why zkeys were 7k....HoM points was just an excuse...

Price will drop for sure,but we cant say it for sure,when there are ppl that dont care about money and buy things overpriced its hard to make things drop.
Btw Silver Coins dont drop lower than 1k for sure since you can buy 1 lockpick with 1 of them.

Im in SPAMADAN · Jun 08, 2011, 04:11 PM // 16:11

The main question of argue is here..

Some argue that RIT Elite Tomes WILL DETERMINE Gold Zcoin Price

while others argue..

that Gold ZCoin WILL DETERMINE RIT Elite Tomes price

both could be right... i personally think option 2 cause gold zcoins are the mainstream trading use